The Sim

Updates throughout the day. Scroll down for further detail.


Sim v2 is a bit different than the projection models I used last year. More features on the way!

      - Doug


Let me take you through the new features and how to use them:

  • Own% - Projected ownership percentage based on player, team, recent stats, vegas totals, etc. These projections are for large-field GPP's.
  • Mag - Magnitude of upside: when this player scores above his salary-expectation, how much does he score? In my opinion, this stat is better than a strict "Points" projection because of the bimodal distribution of player outcomes (i.e. players either score lots or none).
  • Freq - Frequency of scoring above salary-expectation. This is a great Cash stat because it adjusts expectations based on salary, so even a low salary guy gets love if he is consistent. High frequency = Consistency
  • Payoff - Expected Value = Sum of  [Magnitude x Frequency] of scoring 0-8 DKpts. This is the expected value of playing any guy on a given night.
  • PICL - Player Index for Cash Lineups. Uses an increased weight of Freq. to more accurately predict the value of putting any player in a cash lineup. Values are NOT bounded at 1.
  • Leverage - Expectation vs. expected ownership. A value of 1.0 means the player is expected to be owned exactly as much as he should. A value > 1.0 means the player will be under-owned relative to his expected value. Values < 1.0 mean the player will be highly owned despite low value. *Keep in mind* Low leverage players are still viable. If Ovie is going to be 60% owned in GPP, can you afford NOT to have him?